Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Second Session

So, with the Chambliss/Martin Georgia Senatorial runoff complete, my origin state of Minnesota appears to be the last state actively counting ballots. The recount has been in full swing for weeks now, and according to the Minnesota Secretary of State website, is now over 97% complete. That said, with December 3rd's count totals posted, Franken appears to have a comfortable lead of over eleven thousand votes. Here are the totals from the site:

Recounted DataTotalsPercent
RECOUNT Ballots for Coleman (as recounted)117496441.24%
RECOUNT Ballots for Franken (as recounted)118613441.63%
RECOUNT Ballots for Neither (as recounted)48192216.91%
Ballots Challenged by Coleman32410.11%
Ballots Challenged by Franken30850.11%

So, in essence, it appears Franken, without any challenges resolved, is ahead by 11,170 votes. Going by the Secretary of State's number of 97.58% of the ballots having already been recounted, this leaves slightly over 70,664 ballots to be recounted. In a scenario where, say, 70% of the challenged ballots go in favor of Coleman (this is necessarily meant to be a conservative estimate from the other side), this nets Coleman an additional 2530 votes, closing the gap to about 8640 in favor of Franken. Thus, the last 2.42% of the ballots would have to break about 56-44 for Coleman for him to catch up that large of a margin.

I'm not sure exactly what counties/precincts are left, and which direction they are liable to tip to, but man this is good news.

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